September didn't deliver the fall bounce many were hoping for, and that's exactly why the numbers matter more than the noise.
Across the Greater Toronto Area, TRREB reported 5,040 home sales in September 2026, down 9% from a year ago. The average selling price landed at $1,006,409, down 5.1% year over year, and the benchmark price index fell 4.7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales slipped 5.2% from August.
But the headline most people missed: listings fell faster than sales. New listings dropped 14.4% year over year to 16,500, a steeper decline than sales. Active listings ended September at 26,131, down 9.3% from last year. In other words, sellers are pulling back faster than buyers.
What this means for buyers (Guelph to Toronto corridor)
You still have negotiating room, with average days to sell at 51, but there's a catch: fewer sellers are bringing properties to market, so genuinely good listings are scarcer than the buyer's market label suggests. Well priced homes in desirable pockets of Guelph, Cambridge, Milton and Mississauga are still moving. If you've been waiting on the sidelines, selectivity is fine; indefinite waiting is a strategy with an expiry date, because the moment confidence returns, competition returns with it.
What this means for sellers
You're up against cautious buyers, but also against less competing inventory than a year ago. Pricing discipline matters more than ever: homes priced to the current market sell; homes priced to last year's market sit. Condos saw the sharpest price pressure (down 7.7% year over year in the GTA), while semi detached homes held steadiest (down just 0.2%). Property type is now a bigger story than the city average.
Closer to home: Guelph
Board sourced townhouse data for Guelph shows 11 sold in September at an average of $695,000, with 35 active listings, an absorption rate of about 31%, firmly in buyer's market territory. Local numbers, not national averages, are what should drive your decision.
Bottom line
This is a market that rewards preparation over timing: pre approval in hand, clear numbers, and an agent who knows the corridor street by street. If you're considering a move anywhere between Guelph and Toronto this fall, let's talk about what these numbers mean for your specific situation, not the GTA average.